CIA Reading Room cia rdp84b00049r000400850004 6: YAMAL pdf

CIA Reading Room cia rdp84b00049r000400850004 6: YAMAL

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Approved For Release 2006/05/25.:: CIA-RDP84B00049R000400850 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE STAT Notional Intelligence Council NFAC 46588-81 16 October 1981 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence VIA Chairman, National Intelligence Council FROM I National Intelligence Officer for-Economics SUBJECT : Yamal Pipeline 1.- The estimates we have received II concerning the potential delays in corn letion of the Yamal pipeline if the US denies an export license for L components involve two major ‘judgments, the first of whic is probably far better based than the second onei: a. Producing the compressor components (rotors and shafts). in Europe rather than in the US would entail delays of about two:yearsIpresumably has the’ technical expertise to make such–a ju gment. b. These delays, in turn, would result in about a two-year delay in completion of the pipeline itself–neither[ or we can be confident about this judgment.I I 2. CIA has estimated that the pipeline could be completed in five years=-a year longer than planned.

Many technical problems that would cause further delays could be encountered. The timing of compressor deliveries may or may not become a critical factor. We simply do not. know. We have little in-house expertise on pipeline construction and have not yet had the opportunity to discuss the problem with companies experienced in this activity. Consequently, I do not believe we are able to make a strong judgment on this matter other than to point out that not licensing the components would substantially complicate the Soviets’ technical problems in building the pipeline and could cause lengthy delays in its completion. Derivative Cl By Signer Approved For Release 2006/0 j~WRDP8413000814NOR8099S016 9EER STAT STAT

• Creator/s: CIA Reading Room
• Date: 10/16/1981
• Book Topics/Themes: CIA Reading Room

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