DTIC ADA099722: Coherent Assessment of Subjective Probability pdf

DTIC ADA099722: Coherent Assessment of Subjective Probability

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This report discusses the role of coherence considerations in the definition and measurement of subjective probability. A general version of De Finetti’s coherence theorem–that either a set of betting probabilities obeys the laws of probability or else a sure win is possible for the better–is proved, using a variant of Farka’s Lemma. This theorem provides the basis for several admissibility theorems for scoring-rule probabilities, under a generalization of scoring rules suggested by Lindley. Linear programming methods for identifying and reconciling incoherence are discussed, and a comparison is made with Bayesian reconciliation methods

• Creator/s: Defense Technical Information Center
• Date: 3/1/1981
• Year: 1981
• Book Topics/Themes: DTIC Archive, Nau, Robert F., CALIFORNIA UNIV BERKELEY OPERATIONS RESEARCH CENTER, *GAME THEORY, *STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, *COHERENCE, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, THEOREMS, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS, DECISION MAKING, LINEAR PROGRAMMING

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