DTIC ADA444343: It’s the People, Stupid: The pdf

DTIC ADA444343: It’s the People, Stupid: The

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Predicting a leader’s actions must take the Subject’s personality into consideraton in addition to relevant situational variables. This paper presents a methodology for prediction that enables the analyst to reason through a prediction of a Subject’s decision making. to identity assumptions and determinant variables, and to quantify each variable’s relative contribution to the prediction, producing a graphical representation of the analysis with explicit levels of uncertainty. The analyst builds Bayesian networks that integrate situational information with the Subject’s personality and culture to provide a probabilistic prediction of the hypothesized actions a Subject might choose. The model development process allows the analyst to systematically develop hypotheses regarding potential actions, determine the Subject’s most likely strategic objectives, identify relevant situational variables, estimate probabilistic relationships between variables, and assess the Subject’s standing on several personality variables. The analysis forecasts probabilities of hypothesized actions, which may then be subjected to several what-if and sensitivity analyses.

The methodology has been applied to over a dozen historical and prospective situations

• Creator/s: Defense Technical Information Center
• Date: 1/4/2006
• Year: 2006
• Book Topics/Themes: DTIC Archive, Sticha, Paul J, HUMAN RESOURCES RESEARCH ORGANIZATION ALEXANDRIA VA, *DECISION MAKING, *LEADERSHIP, *SENSITIVITY, *BAYES THEOREM, *PERSONALITY, *PREDICTIONS, UNCERTAINTY, INTELLIGENCE TESTS, GRAPHICS, HYPOTHESES, VARIABLES, NETWORKS, PROBABILITY, FORECASTING

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