DTIC ADA479712: Power Law Decay in Model pdf

DTIC ADA479712: Power Law Decay in Model

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Ocean predictability skill is investigated using a Gulf of Mexico nowcast/forecast model. Power law scaling is found in the mean square error of displacement between drifting buoy and model trajectories (both at 50 m depth). The probability density function of the model valid prediction period (VPP) is asymmetric with a long and broad tail on the higher value side, which suggests long-term predictability. The calculations demonstrate that the long-term (extreme long, such as 50-60 day) predictability is not an outlier and shares the same statistical properties as the short-term predictions

• Creator/s: Defense Technical Information Center
• Date: 1/1/2002
• Year: 2002
• Book Topics/Themes: DTIC Archive, Chu, Peter C, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *OCEAN CURRENTS, *PREDICTIONS, *FORECASTING, *MARINE ATMOSPHERES, *OCEAN MODELS, *MEXICO GULF, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, DRIFT, DECAY, MARINE GEOPHYSICS, BUOYS, SCALING FACTOR, ERRORS, DISPLACEMENT, PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS, LONG RANGE(TIME), SHORT RANGE(TIME

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