DTIC ADA560099: Cracks in the New Jar pdf

DTIC ADA560099: Cracks in the New Jar

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Description of the Book:

The United States embraced tailored deterrence in its 2006 and 2010 National Security Strategies. Tailored deterrence seeks to customize whole-of-government deterrence strategies to specific actors and scenarios through a deterministic approach that combines rational deterrence theory with effects-based operations concepts. Consequently, tailored deterrence neglects some of the most important elements of contemporary deterrence theory, including the uncertainty and cognitive biases inherent to both intelligence assessments and international relations. While deterrence remains relevant, the U.S. objective to decisively influence the adversary’s decision-making calculus overstates tailored deterrence’s potential and does not adequately acknowledge its shortfalls. The U.S. approach to tailored deterrence is flawed because of its reliance on two erroneous assumptions: (1) that the United States can reliably assess adversaries’ decision calculus, and (2) that the United States can decisively influence adversaries’ choices. The United States should recognize that deterrence is a blunt instrument, not a scalpel, and should modify its deterrence strategies accordingly

• Creator/s: Defense Technical Information Center
• Date: 3/17/2011
• Year: 2011
• Book Topics/Themes: DTIC Archive, , ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *DECISION MAKING, *DETERRENCE, *ENEMY, *FOREIGN POLICY, *LIMITATIONS, *NUCLEAR WARFARE, *UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, EVOLUTION(GENERAL), INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, THEORY, UNCERTAINTY

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